Manchester United - Ideal January Transfer targets

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It's that time of year with the January Transfer window just round the corner - there have been bizarre rumors with the likes David Beckham, Cristiano Ronaldo et al. being linked to their former club to the even more likely Fellaini/Baines/Strootman/Lewandowski/ etc. 

The below is my personal wish-list based on need and not for reasons of glamour: 

1) Defensive Midfielder -  Fellaini/Strootman : I have been praying for a player in their mould for a long time now and for those of us who have been watching the games this season we know that ManUtd really lack a player who can stop the opposition in attack as well as create chances or himself score. Our current options are Carrick who himself is having one of his best seasons so far but is still not the Defensive Midfielder we need. He is better in the Central midfielder position. Fellaini and Strootman are both above 6 feet tall and their presence would surely be felt. 

Personally though I'm a big fan of Fellaini - I would prefer Strootman who is as good in terms of talent and IMO would come cheaper than would Fellaini who is already now an established star in the EPL. 

A dark horse in this race in an unkown Victor Wanyama of Celtic : He is tall, strong and scores goals. He can substitute as a defender as well and is better than having Carrick at that position. 

2) A defender - Shawcross/Hummels/Forren : We are talking about a team that is on top of the league by 7-points but has also let in as many as 28 goals so far this season. As football 365 rightly pointed out -"ManUnited have now exceeded the number of goals(28) as they conceded in three of their most recent title winning seasons - 2006/07, 2007/08 and 2008/09" (Link here). I really miss the days when Evra, Vidic, Ferdinand and Van der Saar would go three months without conceding. ManUtd really need another good defender - firstly to challenge for all trophies and also because Fergie would rather play Carrick out of position rather than give a youngsters chance. 

Among the mentioned three personally I would go for Hummels because of he is a finished product. Shawcross is another top option because he is now among the top defenders in the EPL and also knows how ManUtd function(tough to imagine he was allowed to go at such a partly sum), I'm sure the clause in his contract with Stoke has something to say about his potential - did Fergie know of his potential - moreover Shawcross is a part of the most miserly defense in the EPL this year with letting in only 14 goals so far. Though Begovic has a major role to play in this part too. More on him later. 

Thirdly Vegard Forren is doing very well at Ole Solskjaers Molde and I'm sure he is an option too. 

3) A goalkeeper - Begovic : He's been one of the best keepers in the Premier League so far and I would swap him for Lindegaard. De Gea is still learning and I'm a big fan of his reflexes. He will be a great keeper in the years to come. I am not saying Lindegaard is bad but he's too good to be 3rd choice or even joint 2nd choice and De Gea can grow very well under Begovic by being a good understudy with ample game time. 

4) Lewandowski : Initially I was complaining about even buying RVP but after seeing the effect he's had on our scoring rate - I've changed sides - we need the attack to score 5 even if the opposition score 3. Also Lewandowski would sit perfectly well at the top of a 4-2-3-1 with Rooney, RVP, Kagawa or one of the Wingers in the 3. Chicharito would play a good substitute at any of these positions. There have been talks of a misunderstanding between Kagawa and him but Fergie is a master of egos and I'm sure will handle it well if it is true. 

Mario Goetze could possibly be a summer move and also Jurgen Klopp would be a good replacement to Sir Alex but my favorite would still be David Moyes - here's why. Okay maybe we should just buy out the whole Dortmund team. 

If these additions are made esp. with the ones that aren't cup-tied with the Champions League then there is no reason why ManUtd cannot win the UCL as well as the Premier League. Lewandowski could be solely used in the league and with the others rotated well. 

Should Chicharito start?

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The debate has been raging after the loss to Norwich and some self-proclaimed hardcore fans are now calling for Fergie's head. It looks like they lost theirs themselves.

Now coming back to my point should a player like Chicharito start? I would say no and here's why...

To be a footballer you need a good mix of two skills - mental and physical. You need to have the skills to dribble/tackle etc. and the mental skills to read a game and position yourself at the right place at the right time. A mix of both is what makes complete footballer. Having them in the right mix separates the Messis' and the Ronaldos' from the rest.

Again some are acquired skills which come with practice and some are inborn.

So what sets the 5'9" striker apart from the rest? Is it his physical strength or skill? Or is his mind with the ability to read a game? In my opinion it's the latter that he reads games so well. He is above average when it comes to skill but there are many with above average skill and that's not what makes him what he is.

He seems to be the kind who takes time to read games(though there maybe exceptions like the 1st minute goal against Chelsea) and in my opinion his best place when a game starts is on the bench. That may sound bizarre but him being my favorite player in the line-up I have always noticed the intensity with which he watches games. He's not the type who's just ready when warming up, he's the type who's reading every move of the enemy from afar and when called to fire all cylinders he seldom disappoints.

It somehow seems to me that he reads games from a holistic perspective, more like looking at the forest and finding the anomalies rather than getting in and looking for holes which would be tougher. Once he's read a game he seems to know what to do to take a man-marking or zonal defender out of position and such a strategy results in either him scoring or providing a teammate with a scoring opportunity.

So he's the kind of player who would thrive if he's allowed to watch the game for a while and then told - here your turn now - go for the kill.

You must also notice his success against teams that have a very rigid strategy. That is again his ability to find a flaw in the system that he can exploit. Of course it could be the manager or coach that is spotting this flaw and asking his to just carry orders out but again I haven't seem someone since Ole Solskjaer do something so often and with such a high success rate. So it has to something about the player too.

I have been hearing rumors of him being sold due to Uniteds excess in his department - personally I would say that would be a big mistake by United and hoping they don't do that. The only other player who seems to be matching him in this aspect of the game as of today is Edin Dzeko.

Cheers to the Little Pea.

Related Reading :

Javier Hernandez should not be used in the United Starting XI : Link here

Where are your clubs fans actually from?

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The heading of this blog is actually taken from a post(link here) which I would say was the very reason I wrote this blog.

The post went like this

Where are your clubs fans actually from? This is shocking, or not so shocking depending on your views. 

The list below shows the percentage of fans who support the club who live within a local postcode. 

No prizes for guessing which club are at the bottom of the table. 

1. Wigan Athletic: 64.7% 
2. Norwich City: 60.8% 
3. Southampton: 51.2% 
4. Reading: 49.4% 
5. Swansea City: 47.6% 
6. Stoke City: 46.1% 
7. Aston Villa: 37.4% 
8. Newcastle: 35.3% 
9. Fulham: 33.8% 
10. West Bromwich Albion: 29.4% 
11. Sunderland: 24% 
12. Queens Park Rangers: 23.4% 
13. West Ham United: 23.2% 
14. Everton: 19.3% 
15. Arsenal: 14.4% 
16. Tottenham Hotspur: 14.4% 
17. Manchester City: 13.2% 
18. Chelsea: 12.5% 
19. Liverpool: 10.5% 
20. Manchester United: 8.6%

End of post.

Are we really shocked to see that list? The pun in the post if you have noticed though is the line that goes

"No prizes for guessing which club are at the bottom of the table"

This would partially take me back to my previous blog on the best supported clubs in the Europe(Link here) and we'll do some math with it.

So from that list the clubs in the EPL and based on these two posts the approx number of supporters in each of the local zip codes would be a product of the total supporters multiplied by the % of supporters in the local zip-code.

So lets begin.

1) Manchester United : 354M x 8.6% = 30.44M

2) Chelsea : 135M x 12.5% = 16.8M

3) Arsenal : 113M x 14.4% = 16.27M

4) Liverpool : 71M x 10.5% = 7.51M

5) Manchester City =18Mx13.2% = 2.38M

6) Tottenham : 11M x 14.4% = 1.58M

7) Newcastle United = 6M x 35.3% = 2.18M

Something tells me either one or both of these numbers don't look right and considering the numbers are right the pun gets negated. The club right at the bottom of one list is now sitting right at the top of another.

By the way ManCity fans - I hope that number is not true. 

Best supported European Football clubs

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1) Manchester United : 354M fans

2) Barcelona : 270M fans

3) Real Madrid : 174M fans

4) Chelsea : 135M fans

5) Arsenal : 113M fans

6) AC Milan : 99M fans

7) Liverpool : 71M fans

8) Inter Milan : 49M fans

9) Bayern Munich : 24M fans

10) Juventus : 20M fans

11) Manchester City : 18M fans

12) Tottenham Hotspurs : 11M fans

13) Newcastle United : 6M fans

Source : www.talksport.co.uk 

Will the diamond work against Chelsea

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We may have a noticed a new strategy by Sir Alex for the last three games.

He has been trying an attacking formation and as it's called in some quarters the diamond.

Manchester United have been successful in the last three games that they have employed this tactic - beating Newcastle, Stoke City and Braga on the trot and in the process scoring as many as 10 goals in these three games.

I would always welcome an attacking minded team than a Chelsea that would toil for the first goal and then sit back and absorb the pressure(park the bus) but my point that how long would such a strategy work.

So far we have conceded 4 goals and it's a matter of having the likes of Rooney, RVP, Kagawa, Hernandez etc. that have saved face by simply outscoring the opposition.

Coming to the next game against current table toppers let me play Mr. Obvious and call it a 6 pointer.

Now both against Stoke and Braga, we have conceded first and it took the toil of Rooney and co. to claw back into the game, would such a strategy work against a Chelsea squad that has let in just 9 goals so far this term? Or against a Chelsea team that would go all out and defend like their lives depended on it. You will know what I'm saying when you think of their Champions league 2011/12 season in spite of finishing a lowly 6th in the league.

If we let the first goal in against Chelsea then coming back against them would be a herculean task, let alone conceding a 2nd like against Braga. So the defence has to be plugged with support from Carrick and not Carrick as the CB. So it would be vital for us to play 2 regular and not make-shift CBs.

Whom would I choose against Chelsea?
De Gea
Rafael, Rio,Evans,Evra/Buttner
Welbeck,Carrick, Anderson, Rooney
RVP

Yes Buttner or Evra would be okay. Buttner for his energy or Evra for his big game experience and please no Carrick as a CB - whoever is fit or one of the youngsters. Kagawa's creativity will surely be missed, what a buy he is turning out to be. I would've had him instead of Anderson in the team and have Rooney partner Carrick in the CM role.

I reckon Fergie is going to play Scholes in midfield given Chelsea don't have an express midfield either and Scholes offers a new dimension to the whole game, in that case Anderson would have to be rested and brought on once a lead is established.

Lastly I've mentioned it before(link here) on why we need a DM and recently heard rumors of the possibility of signing Kevin Strootman(Link here). I hope it's true. It would almost complete this team. Anyway till the metamorphosis is complete we have to make do with whatever is on the plate.

GGMU

Call a spade a spade - John Terry

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I have seen Chelsea fans over the last few days make a big hue and cry over the fact that FA has overruled the decision of the courts and punished their beloved Captain Flawless aka John Terry.

Firstly lets try to see the reason behind the now famous sentence that contained the word "untenable" (which incidentally means incapable of being defended or justified). In court this is what happened "Mr. Terry DID NOT DENY USING THE WORD "BLACK" AND SWEARING AT Mr. Ferdinand" (Link here). It goes on to say that "His defence was that he had thought Mr. Ferdinand was accusing him of using the words, and was simply repeating them when he was caught on camera." Now I would want to agree with that but how many times do u repeat the same words that someone accuses you of saying? Here's a video of that and think about it - even if you did, would this be the way you would say it? (Link here)

Following that the FA had made it very clear by saying - "The FA notes the decision in the John Terry case and will now seek to conclude it's own inquiries". So John Terry very well knew it was not over.

Now a few days before the trial before the FA which earlier had not let Luis Suarez without a ban and fine, Terry maybe had a premonition of his doom tried to play like the spoilt kid(well he plays for Chelsea) and decided to retire from international football. His timing was perfect and his fans were so satisfied by the fact that they had their revenge in advance with the "Ahh you guys don't give Terry the special treatment he won't play for you" feeling. Well I'm sure they are hurt but if someone is racist then he/it has to be kicked out. If it has hurt his ego then too bad.

After he was banned for 4 games and fined about 3 times what his predecessor and partner in crime Suarez had to pay, the fans again went berserk like they had been abused and now were being punished. So much for their logic which I would not wish to go into. I'm also waiting for what CFC would officially say about this ban and moreover Terry has time to appeal as well. Will Chelsea stand by their player like Liverpool did and give out a subtle message saying that racism is okay and bring on another PR disaster or would they just maintain a calculated silence.

Is the punishment enough - given he plays for Chelsea the fine would not make too much of a difference but 4 games? I guess not. Here's what the others have to say.

1) Lenient John Terry ban may concern Black players - Paul Davis ( Link here)

2) Footages dont lie - Anton Ferdinand himself (Link Here)

and one from our very own Joey Barton

3) What an absolute farce (Link here)

It's for you to decide which side you are on - equality or racism.

Take your pick.

All I have to say is, John Terry - if you said it - you said it.

Are Manchester United a one man team?

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After the way RVP saved ManUtd from defeat against a struggling Southampton there have been talks by fans and others about whether they are turning into a one man team.

I would like to say "Manchester United are and were for the last 26 years a one man team" and you know who the one man is - Sir Alex Ferguson.

He has had multiple challengers, Arsene Wenger, Jose Morinho and Chelsea, ManCity, etc. but he has always reigned supreme. Nobody has been able to surpass his achievements and and given the lack of patience in football today it looks unlikely anyone would in the near future either. He has on most occasions been able to spot the best talent, in Ronaldo, Valencia, Rooney, Kagawa etc. and aided by a strong academy has been able to produce successful teams for years now.

Who would have expected Rooney to be out of form and then as he was trying to get back to his best would get injured and be out for 4 weeks. Following his injury he would still take a few games to get back to what he is capable of. I too was very skeptical of ManUtd getting van Persie of the motives behind the deal(Link here). Who other than Rooney would've been able to score a hat-trick after missing that penalty. You know who did and who was responsible to bring him in.

So to keep this short and sweet - I would say "FERGIE KNOWS".

FAs own financial fair play - how fair is it?

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Player salaries now add up to around 70% of club turnovers. With the success of ManCity and Chelsea this figure is sure set to rise and this alarming trend is not something that bodes well for the league. I have spoken in a previous blog about how this changes the landscape of the league(Link here).

Is the recent discussion on how salary caps and spending limits the beginning of the end of this cancerous practice?

The FA had met to discuss how a new regulation for financial controls wherein clubs would have to break-even every year or face sanctions. Not shockingly this move was sparked by Manchester United who seem have been awakened by some cold water thrown at them given the recent success of ManCity and Chelsea and with their own trophy cabinet not being disturbed last year. Support to this proposal comes from a very unlikely frontier in the form of Dave Whelan the chairman of Wigan who themselves had a £7.2 Million loss in the season ending May 2011.

With 2 strong advocates for these changes being Manchester United and Arsenal along with Wigan, West Ham and Stoke. The obvious naysayers include Chelsea and ManCity with support from Fulham, Everton, West Bromwich Albion, Newcastle and Tottenham. The argument that David Gill, CEO of ManUtd had for this was logical that the leagues that sandwich the premier league viz. the Championship and the Champions League are in the process of or have already implemented them. So according to Gill why not the Premier League.

This of course is not an easy task given that at least 14 teams have to agree to make any changes which is just above a 2/3rd majority and getting everyone to a common ground would seem a tough task given how success has been bought of-late.

If we a little look into this a little more in detail at this about how clubs fare if this rule were to be applied today then we have the table which is in this link. 
There is alarming 11 clubs which have have a wages to turnover ratio of 70% or more and with the top culprit being the obvious ManCity with 114% of their turnover going into wages. Surprisingly the other evil, Chelsea is 3rd at 86% with Aston Villa sandwiched between these 2 at 90%. These are 2011 figures and the number are sure going to be different for the 2011/12 season. Sitting safely at the top are Manchester United and Arsenal with 46% and 48% respectively. 

Coming back to regulations this would prevent clubs from biting off more than they can chew and also prevent owners from treating clubs as their plaything. Such regulations would also prevent another Portsmouth and Rangers debacle. And like David Gill has said with both the league above and below the EPL with such regulations it would not harm to gradually enforce them onto this league too. 

It is obvious that the big spenders would oppose such a proposal for their own success but if we are avoid a La-Liga like 2 horse race which is already seeming to form in the EPL too then these regulations seem necessary. I spoken about how this tiered structured seems to be coming into existence in the EPL too in previous 2 blogs 

1) Predictions for the EPL 2012/13( Link here).

2) What does the rise of Manchester City mean(Link here).

Is Wayne Rooney a supercharged John O'Shea?

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Wayne Rooney is no doubt one of the best players in the world and almost any team would love to have him.

I still remember Jose Morinho saying in an interview that the chances of Wayne Rooney leaving ManUtd (during CityGate) is very low but if he's available to please let him know.

Is Wayne Rooney paying for it now? Has Sir Alex really forgiven his prodigal son.

Let's take a look at the various positions Wayne Rooney can play well and he would prefer playing in -

Striker : Yes Wayne Rooney has been one of the most prolific goal-scorers over the last few years esp after the departure of Ronaldo. He has been the go-to man in this regard but now this season the gaffer brought in a certain Robin van Persie, who for me would be a better fit as a striker than Rooney.

Now let us think of a replacement for RVP - so our second choice would be Chicharito? He's another world-class marksman  who with that footballing genius inside his little head is tailor-made for this position. Remember I'm talking of a second choice striker - and Chicharito would walk into most squads as the main striker itself so having him a replacement is not a bad idea at all. Also given his attitude, positivity and dedication - he's a boon to any squad.

ACM : Yes that's another of Rooneys favorite positions. He loves to dig deep and create goals, I've seen him doing that amazingly well over a few games last season too. In the summer of 2012, in walks a lean, smiling and lovable Shinji Kagawa - who with his charm and now with his skills has sent out a clear message that he loves that position and would go all out to make it his own. Have we found a new Ginger Ninja? May not be a no-nonsense tough tackling midfleider but definitely a player who has the skill to succeed at the biggest club in the world. RVP too can play in this positions.

Waiting in the wings we have another fabulous forward - with the work rate, strength, skill to match anyone else - Danny Welbeck. Having singed a new contract would surely be wanting to get as much playing time as possible.He's now among the main strikers for England too.

So technically Manchester United have 2 players for each position that Rooney would prefer to play in. Coming to the wingers - we have Ashley Young, Valencia, Nani and even Kagawa with the ability to cover when needed. Moreover though he would excel in such a role Rooney would not prefer being there unless necessary.

Moreover like I have mentioned in my previous blog (link here) - United do have an embarressment of riches when it comes to stikers viz. Rooney, Welbeck, Chicha, Bebe, Nick Powell, Will Keane, Macheda, Henriques and now RVP.  So why RVP? Was he brought to please investors? (Link here)

Rooney though has been a team player and I seen him help in midfield and defense on occasions as and when the situation warranted.So basically Rooney has the ability to play in a lot of positions all around the park. Reminds me of a certain John O'Shea.

Coming back to Rooneys histrionics last year. Would Sir Alex ever forgive anybody? Is RVP the final piece of this puzzle. Is he on the way out sooner or later? IMO that's a million dollar question.

Was van Persie bought to appease investors?

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Disclaimer: I have always been a fan of van Persie and this blog is not against him or his purchase.

Taking a quick look at the list of strikers/forwards that ManUtd posses. Wayne Rooney(second highest goals in the league last year), Chicharito, Welbeck, Berbatov(hasn't left yet), Bebe, Nick Powell, Kagawa, Will Keane(back from injury by the 2nd half of the season), Macheda and now RVP and Henriquez.

Among these before RVP : Rooney, Chicha and Welbeck are first team material. I am not mentioning Berbatov in the same breath because he MAY be out by the time this is published but otherwise he can walk into this line-up too.

Agreed Kagawa is an ACM but how will you accommodate 2 among the above with Kagawa? Maybe in a 4-3-2-1 where he and Rooney play in the 2? Then we choose just 1 Striker? Then who plays in the 3? CMs or Wingers? How?
The same problem would exist if you play 4-2-3-1 with Kagawa in the middle of the 3. 

Macheda and Bebe are not bad for 5th choice and 6th choice respectively - after, Rooney, Chicharito, Welbeck, Berba and maybe Kagawa and Powell too? Also remember Will Keane will be back. 

How many of us remember the Lucas Moura episode? I have from the beginning not wanted him in the squad because he has come across as a money minded mercenary IMO.

Does that $40M episode(which fortunately was fruitless) along with the rumors " ManUtd strongly linked to RVP" have a coincidence, you may not agree it but I see a correlation between this and the IPO.

What does such a message send out to investors?  Manchester United are ready to be competitive to stay in the market. RVP means more merchandise and mind you investors care about revenue more than they would about trophies. Good the RVP deal was concluded which would've given investors confidence.

Though a defensive midfielder was the need of the hour ManUtd went into for a striker to add to their already possessed embarrassment of riches in that department.

I write this after the purchase of Buttner else LB would have been another position we were not good enough but currently the need of the hour is a Defensive Midfielder in the mold of Yann M'Vila, Kevin Strootman, Alex Witsel, Fellaini etc..I have spoken about why it is important and cost us the match, in the last blog (Link here). Even Mancini knows the value of winning the ball and not leaving that job to defenders alone and has been rumored to have made a bid for De Rossi. Remember it's been years since Roy Keane left and nobody has replaced him.

This link talks of the positions players generally play at ManUtd and you will notice how we have 3 DMs but to none of them it is a preferred position - Carrick and Scholes are CMs and Phil Jones is a CB in terms of preferred positions. So to all of them the DM is a secondary position(Link here).

So why would ManUtd go after a high profile signing(luxury) instead of a necessity?

So Fergie to put our doubts to rest - please get a defensive midfielder asap.

Alternatively groom Phil Jones to become a DM and get one from the youth to cover his place in defense.

In an alternate perspective RVP could've been bought to appease dissident fans and bring the MUFC flock back(Read LUHG). Either ways, he is a great player and would be a good addition to the squad. His experience can be used to groom Welbeck and Chicharito very well. Who am I to complain if we get the best striker in the league.

In even another perspective - could Kagawa, RVP, Henriquez and Powell, signal a big money sale of Wayne Rooney?  Yes that sounds absurd - but tell me 6 months back RVP was moving to ManUtd!!!

Was RVP bought to please fans, investors or to win the league. Maybe 2013 will tell.

Football is a crazy game.

Predictions for the 2012-13 EPL

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Firstly I write this as a sequel to the blog - What does the rise of Manchester City mean?  Which gives a perspective on the EPL or football in general has changed with the rise of clubs like ManCity and Chelsea.

In that that blog I have spoken of a big 3 + 4 structure starting to emerge in English football.

So 1 2 and 3?

Spot 1 : Winner : This would be a tough fight between ManCity and ManUtd and there are multiple reasons either one could win.

Firstly let's see why last years winners ManCity could win it.

The squad : a sqaud that boasts of the likes of Aguero, Tevez, Balotelli, Kompany, Yaya Toure, Dzeko, Nasri, Silva, De Jong, Clichy, etc. will have the quality to win the league, moreover now they have the experience with one league in their kitty. 

The Manager : Roberto Mancini is one of the best in the business.

Why City may lose the plot :

Bloated egos : With volatile characters like Balotelli and Tevez and now with the ego of one League in their pocket the squad could be a mistake waiting to happen.

Second Season syndrome : now if it's going to be arrogance, over-confidence or complacency, Mancini has a tough task at hand keeping the negativity at bay and motivating the squad.

No notable new additions : Reed B Markham said "If you are standing still, you are also going backwards. It takes great effort to maintain forward movement", ManCity won a league by a whisker, so waiting and watching while their title rivals have bought upto 4 players and their captain back from injury, is as good as going backwards (Though the window has not closed yet). 

Moving on to ManUtd: 

Why would they win it?

Sir Alex Ferguson : With his magical ability to create a whole that is always greater than the sum of it's parts, the resolve of this septuagenarian wizard is unmatchable. 

New Signings : Shinji Kagawa, Nick Powell, deal being finalized as I write with Henriquez and the icing on the cake - Robin van Persie - need I say more? Last year the league was lost by 8 goals - I see more than 8 goals from this set.

Nemaja Vidic : the no nonsense defender/captain was missed last season with a long injury. 

Last seasons disappointments : losing the league on goal difference in extra time last season, a 1-6 humiliation at the hands of their bitter rivals and noisy neighbors, premature UCL and Europa league exits, the only season in a long time without a trophy, etc... this seems to added more resolve into this squad. 

Flexibility to play different formations : much has been said about the rigidity of formation esp when it came to the UCL, the current new additions give them more options to formations.

Why United may lose the plot? 

Squad selection : they have 5 world-class strikers in Rooney, RVP, Chicharito, Welbeck and Berbatov(may leave though), with not enough game time, we may have disgruntled ones. It would take Fergie all his management skills to keep this squad happy.

Tactical inflexibility : playing the tried and tested 4-4-2 may not work at all times. 

Coming to Chelsea : 

Why they may win it: 
I'm predicting a 3rd place finish but again, nobody predicted them to win the UCL - 2012 either. 

In Chelsea's case their positives and negatives are the same, based on how the squad takes them. 

UCL-2012 : This was considered their owners' holy grail, now having achieved that would this current squad want to achieve more, it seems like they have won it all or would it motivate them to further glory. 

The Manager : his methods are known and seem to be acceptable(unlike his predecessor) to the squad. Can this motivate them or can this come across as his weakness and have senior players run the squad. 

The owner : his willingness to spend to improve the squad and his overindulgence in day to day football affairs are 2 sides of the same Russian coin. 

 I don't see anybody outside these three having a realistic chance of winning the league but football is a crazy and I would make a few notable mentions and their positives/negatives. 

Tottenham : I've had a liking to the AVB methods from his Porto days and would like to see him being a long term prospect at his new club.

Arsenal : After losing some of their best talent in succession, this squad can overperform if they hold their nerve. Moreover the arrivals of Podolski and Giroud should give them firepower upfront and can partly fill the void of their best player leaving. 

Newcastle : last seasons' dark-horse, they have a well assembled team. 

Liverpool : Had some bad PR with the whole Suarez episode. Expecting Rodgers to breathe in some fresh-air.

So I'd say

4) Arsenal
5) Tottenham
6) Newcastle
7)Liverpool or Everton

Finally if I was asked to say who would win it : Manchester United. 

Reason : Whenever they have finished 2nd: 1995,1998, 2006 and 2010, they have gone on to win the league the following year : 1996, 1999, 2007 and 2011. The manager and his team look determined for the 20th.

What does the rise of Manchester City mean?

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Fresh from the Robin van Persie transfer saga....

Until 2004 the premier league title in it's current format had been in the hands of 3 teams - Manchester United(Man Utd), Arsenal and Blackburn Rovers. In walked Chelsea with a billionaire owner and a new manager. They went on to win the league in the 2004-05 season and then we had just 3 teams winning the league since viz. Manchester United, Chelsea and most recently Manchester City(Man City).

What has been the reason behind the dominance of certain teams and what drives success in the Premier League? Money though how it is got may differ. Arsenal and Manchester United have a good revenue stream and have exceptional managers. Chelsea and Man City have been bought by billionaire owners.

Before the rise of Manchester City there had been talk of a Big-4 in English football, which included Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool, who among them had won most of the major trophies and also would be difficult to guess where each of these would finish come the end of the football season. 

Now there is talk of a a big 3 + 4 where the first 3 include ManUtd, Man City and Chelsea and remaining 4 consisting of Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspurs, Liverpool and Newcastle. Such a tier is a reflection of the possible positions where the teams would finish.

Until a few years ago we did not have players moving much between top teams but over the last year and a half - we have seen 2 major moves between the aforementioned teams -  Fernando Torres from Liverpool to Chelsea and van Persie from Arsenal to Manchester United much to the anger of the fans of the teams that lost their star players.

What would such a pattern mean, it is indicative of the growing chasm between the 3 and 4 groups within the big 3 + 4. Is it a case of the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer? I would just stop short of saying exactly that but yes that's where things seem to be headed at this rate in the league.

Chelsea having been one of the dominating sides over the last decade and then winning the champions league in 2012 have shown that money can buy you success and more recently Man City with their bunch of own superstars proved that by snatching the league from the jaws of Man United.

Man City have made it tougher for the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool, Newcastle to think of winning a cup but the problem with such a business model that it has been proven to be a success.

So now we have billionaires looking to have a new plaything and in the long run also treat it like an investment would just look at leagues like they would at an online shopping store and buy the one that suits them the most. That in a way would mean the clubs that hit the lottery gain an undue advantage over the hard-workers. Even the likes of Everton, Fulham, etc. would feel robbed in a way. But one thing is that tomorrow we might have another billionaire buying another club and making it the next Man City or Chelsea or PSG.

We have the Financial Fair Play coming into effect sometime soon which may put the brakes on such intentions in the future but till then the edge these teams have are going to exist and once the FFP does get implemented  the momentum would get them going. 

The Mathematics of the Manchester United IPO

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This blog is a continuation to my previous blogs -but even if you haven't read them this will make sense to you.

So Manchester United are going public and lets do the Math:

All the figures here are as reported by ManUtd to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.  Link here.

The details about the IPO are here.
So Manchester United have decided to sell 8,333,334 Class A ordinary shares. (Use of Proceeds)

They are expecting to sell each share at $18

So that would give us : $18 x 8,333,334 = $150,000,012 let's take an approx figure of $150M. 

It clearly says in the filing - "the net proceeds from the sale would be approximately $140M... after deducting estimated underwriting discounts and commissions. Expenses of this offering will be paid by us with existing cash on hand." 

So : 

$150M - underwriting discounts - commissions = 140M.

It goes on to say " We intend to use all of our net proceeds from this offering to reduce our indebtedness by exercising our option to redeem and retire $116.8 million (£73.0 million) in aggregate principal amount of our 8³/8% US dollar senior secured notes due 2017 at a redemption price equal to 108.375% of the principal amount of such notes and £8.3 million in aggregate principal amount of our 8³/4% pound sterling senior secured notes due 2017 at a redemption price equal to 108.750% of the principal amount of such notes, plus, in each case, accrued and unpaid interest to the date of such redemption. In addition, upon consummation of this offering, our senior secured notes previously purchased by us in open market transactions will be contributed to MU Finance plc and retired." 

So, all of it goes to repay existing debt and nothing into the Glazers' pockets(See underlined text). 
Another statement : " We will not receive any proceeds from the sale of any Class A ordinary shares by the selling shareholder."

So assuming the price of the share goes down to $17, 

then : $17 x 8,333,334 = $141, 666, 661
or $15 x 8,333,334 = $125,000,010
or $19 x 8333,334 = $158,333,346

Which is explained in detail in my previous blog(Link here). 


Which is why in the document it says : " A $1.00 increase in the assumed initial public offering price of $18.00 per share, which is the midpoint of the range set forth on the cover page of this prospectus, would increase our expected net proceeds from this offering by $7.8 million, and correspondingly would increase the amount of our pound sterling senior secured notes that we will redeem and retire in connection with this offering by £4.5 million. A $1.00 decrease in the assumed initial public offering price would reduce our expected net proceeds by $7.8 million, and correspondingly reduce the amount of our pound sterling senior secured notes redeemed and retired in connection with this offering by approximately £4.5 million (if the initial public offering price is $17.00 per share). A $2.00 decrease in the assumed initial public offering price would reduce our expected net proceeds by $15.6 million, and correspondingly reduce the amount of our pound sterling senior secured notes and US dollar senior secured notes redeemed and retired in connection with this offering by approximately £8.3 million and $1.0 million, respectively (if the initial public offering price is $16.00 per share). A $3.00 decrease in the assumed initial public offering price would reduce our expected net proceeds by $23.4 million, and correspondingly reduce the amount of our pound sterling senior secured notes and our US dollar senior secured notes redeemed and retired in connection with this offering by approximately £8.3 million and $8.2 million respectively (if the initial public offering price is $15.00 per share)."

About dividends : "We do not currently intend to pay cash dividends on our Class A ordinary shares in the foreseeable future. However, if we do pay a cash dividend on our Class A ordinary shares in the future, we will pay such dividend out of our profits or share premium (subject to solvency requirements) as permitted under Cayman Islands law. Our board of directors has complete discretion regarding the declaration and payment of dividends, and our principal shareholder will be able to influence our dividend policy..... Any dividends we declare on our ordinary shares will be in respect of both our Class A ordinary shares and Class B ordinary shares, and will be distributed such that a holder of one of our Class B ordinary shares will receive the same amount of the dividends that are received by a holder of one of our Class A ordinary shares. We will not declare any dividend with respect to the Class A ordinary shares without declaring a dividend on the Class B ordinary shares, and vice versa." 

How bout that? 

So I have to go back to my previous point. 

Please let the IPO be a success. 

Please share if you agree. 

My previous blogs on the same topic: 

1) Why the LUHG brigade needs to shut up for a while!

2) Who's the real loser? (Glazers V/s ManUtd)

Find me on Twitter. https://twitter.com/agnel

Who's the real loser?

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Please Note : "This is a continuation of my previous blog Why the LUHG brigade needs to shut up for a while. Click here for it and please note - there are no ads here and I don't get paid to write. I write because of my passion for ManUtd. I am not a journalist by profession. Please share this if you believe."

Go on Chevrolet, cancel the sponsorship, pay us off with £50m to keep it out of court and get another deal from somewhere.This was the rant I read on twitter from a fellow United fan.

Let us imagine the scnario where scenario where Chevrolet actually pull out and pay the £50M to settle out of court? I don't know the figures of the current deal but let us take an arbitrary sum of £30M a year that Chevrolet cancel(the actual deal maybe worth more or less). What would that do to the band Manchester United, how would it affect the Glazers' and whom would it affect more? I would let you take your pick on that.

So MUST(a faction of United fans) say we United fans MUST boycott united sponsors now. That has been one of the most ridiculous and immature statements from them.

Now lets try to break that down a little. What is the real reason people want to be sponsors of a sports team? So that its' fans use that product? So when Vodafone sponsored us a few years back, all of us used their services? Do the fans of the New York Yankees use AT&T and the Red Sox use only Verizon?  Well, I congratulate your line of thought but let's look at it from another angle. So now, would only United fans buy Chevrolet and Liverpool fans not buy them? United fans would use DHL and rest FEDEX or UPS? So by sponsoring us, they(sponsors) are at most catering to only 659M(which IMO may be inflated, because it would include followers and not just fans) of us and the rest can take a hike? Well thought out. How many of you from MUST use Management Consulting services from Aon? And now - you are going to stop?

Now lets talk about exposure - when United play - how many watch the game? How many of us buy jerseys? The sponsors consider us as walking billboards - the main intention is to get as much exposure as possible. People taking note of the product that is on the shirts. So sirs, the main intention is to make sure people see the brand, and take notice and the next time they have to make a choice they consider the one that they have seen a lot.So you would stop buying jerseys, you know who that's going to hurt?

By boycotting products, how much do you think their business would be affected? Maybe, 1%? On the other hand how many would continue watching ManUtd games? The same number if not more? So the sponsors still get the exposure needed and would have to shell out less.

Also on the long run your actions are going to hurt the club more than it would hurt the Glazers. They have other sources of income - and even if they sell the club later the scar of such protests remain when sponsors decide how much to pay.I'm not pro-Glazers but I don't wanna do stuff that would hurt my beloved club on the long run.

So like I have said in my previous blog, please help the IPO be as successful as possible and raise as much as possible and see where the money goes. If it doesn't go where it is supposed to go, I will join you in my protest, but for now, LET'S BE UNITED.

GGMU.


PLEASE SHARE THIS IF YOU BELIEVE.

Find me on Twitter - https://twitter.com/agnel 

Why the LUHG brigade needs to shut up for a while!

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Most of us Manchester United fans know that the IPO at NYSE is almost inevitable.

Would the Glazers listen to us? I guess not.

What best could we do to help our beloved club?

I guess the biggest asset our club has is us fans, arguably 659 millon of us. So what are we(not all but some of us) doing now? Going anti-Glazers, protesting, etc.? I agree overall it is your concern for the club but maybe we should have a better strategy.

Now firstly, our beloved club is going public - in simple terms it's shares are going to be traded in the stock-market(NYSE most probably in this case). Let's assume the Glazers are looking to raise $300M, that is just an expectation, what the market decides to pay for it would be different. Can it be more than $300M? Yes. How about less than $300M? Yes again. All this depends on what the buyers and the markets think of ManUtd.

So we have this case where we, the so-called FANS of ManUtd speaking against our own club. What wold that mean? The analysts would probably view this in a very negative way and say, "hey, it's own fans are against the owners, I'm not too confident this club will do well, I'm not going to buy this stock". What would such a scenario mean for the stock? The club will have to say, "hey, okay buy it for $275M", "or 250m", what would that mean? The money ManUtd get out of this floatation would be less. Which translates to lesser money to pay off the debt. EXACTLY!

Now on the other hand, lets assume that we support the IPO and even decide to buy a share. How much would the share cost anyway? $30 or $40? We spend more than that on club merchandise which is temporary, and would it not be bragging right for us to own a small part of the greatest club in history? Lets assume we all rush in to buy it. What would that mean in terms of it's pricing. The club would say " hey, it looks like a lot of people want to buy these shares, maybe we could raise $350M?", ok so what? More money to pay off the debt and now real fans, you are contributing to pay it off.

The price rise and fall is a simple case of supply and demand. Look at what is happened to Facebook because of news like 83M fake accounts, users moving to twitter, Google+ etc... Please don't let our beloved club fall like that.

We must also realize that maybe the Glazers are going public to see how much the markets think ManUtd is worth and eventually would sell the club? So please don't stop it now. Let it happen and Support Manchester United. 

So real fans, please stand by your team and support the IPO.
 
GGMU!!!

Also I really don't know where the proceeds from the LUGH merchandise are going to? Atleast I know when I buy official ManUtd gear, I'm supporting my team.