Firstly I write this as a sequel to the blog - What does the rise of Manchester City mean? Which gives a perspective on the EPL or football in general has changed with the rise of clubs like ManCity and Chelsea.
In that that blog I have spoken of a big 3 + 4 structure starting to emerge in English football.
So 1 2 and 3?
Spot 1 : Winner : This would be a tough fight between ManCity and ManUtd and there are multiple reasons either one could win.
Firstly let's see why last years winners ManCity could win it.
The squad : a sqaud that boasts of the likes of Aguero, Tevez, Balotelli, Kompany, Yaya Toure, Dzeko, Nasri, Silva, De Jong, Clichy, etc. will have the quality to win the league, moreover now they have the experience with one league in their kitty.
The Manager : Roberto Mancini is one of the best in the business.
Why City may lose the plot :
Bloated egos : With volatile characters like Balotelli and Tevez and now with the ego of one League in their pocket the squad could be a mistake waiting to happen.
Second Season syndrome : now if it's going to be arrogance, over-confidence or complacency, Mancini has a tough task at hand keeping the negativity at bay and motivating the squad.
No notable new additions : Reed B Markham said "If you are standing still, you are also going backwards. It takes great effort to maintain forward movement", ManCity won a league by a whisker, so waiting and watching while their title rivals have bought upto 4 players and their captain back from injury, is as good as going backwards (Though the window has not closed yet).
Moving on to ManUtd:
Why would they win it?
Sir Alex Ferguson : With his magical ability to create a whole that is always greater than the sum of it's parts, the resolve of this septuagenarian wizard is unmatchable.
New Signings : Shinji Kagawa, Nick Powell, deal being finalized as I write with Henriquez and the icing on the cake - Robin van Persie - need I say more? Last year the league was lost by 8 goals - I see more than 8 goals from this set.
Nemaja Vidic : the no nonsense defender/captain was missed last season with a long injury.
Last seasons disappointments : losing the league on goal difference in extra time last season, a 1-6 humiliation at the hands of their bitter rivals and noisy neighbors, premature UCL and Europa league exits, the only season in a long time without a trophy, etc... this seems to added more resolve into this squad.
Flexibility to play different formations : much has been said about the rigidity of formation esp when it came to the UCL, the current new additions give them more options to formations.
Why United may lose the plot?
Squad selection : they have 5 world-class strikers in Rooney, RVP, Chicharito, Welbeck and Berbatov(may leave though), with not enough game time, we may have disgruntled ones. It would take Fergie all his management skills to keep this squad happy.
Tactical inflexibility : playing the tried and tested 4-4-2 may not work at all times.
Coming to Chelsea :
Why they may win it:
I'm predicting a 3rd place finish but again, nobody predicted them to win the UCL - 2012 either.
In Chelsea's case their positives and negatives are the same, based on how the squad takes them.
UCL-2012 : This was considered their owners' holy grail, now having achieved that would this current squad want to achieve more, it seems like they have won it all or would it motivate them to further glory.
The Manager : his methods are known and seem to be acceptable(unlike his predecessor) to the squad. Can this motivate them or can this come across as his weakness and have senior players run the squad.
The owner : his willingness to spend to improve the squad and his overindulgence in day to day football affairs are 2 sides of the same Russian coin.
I don't see anybody outside these three having a realistic chance of winning the league but football is a crazy and I would make a few notable mentions and their positives/negatives.
Tottenham : I've had a liking to the AVB methods from his Porto days and would like to see him being a long term prospect at his new club.
Arsenal : After losing some of their best talent in succession, this squad can overperform if they hold their nerve. Moreover the arrivals of Podolski and Giroud should give them firepower upfront and can partly fill the void of their best player leaving.
Newcastle : last seasons' dark-horse, they have a well assembled team.
Liverpool : Had some bad PR with the whole Suarez episode. Expecting Rodgers to breathe in some fresh-air.
So I'd say
4) Arsenal
5) Tottenham
6) Newcastle
7)Liverpool or Everton
Finally if I was asked to say who would win it : Manchester United.
Reason : Whenever they have finished 2nd: 1995,1998, 2006 and 2010, they have gone on to win the league the following year : 1996, 1999, 2007 and 2011. The manager and his team look determined for the 20th.
In that that blog I have spoken of a big 3 + 4 structure starting to emerge in English football.
So 1 2 and 3?
Spot 1 : Winner : This would be a tough fight between ManCity and ManUtd and there are multiple reasons either one could win.
Firstly let's see why last years winners ManCity could win it.
The squad : a sqaud that boasts of the likes of Aguero, Tevez, Balotelli, Kompany, Yaya Toure, Dzeko, Nasri, Silva, De Jong, Clichy, etc. will have the quality to win the league, moreover now they have the experience with one league in their kitty.
The Manager : Roberto Mancini is one of the best in the business.
Why City may lose the plot :
Bloated egos : With volatile characters like Balotelli and Tevez and now with the ego of one League in their pocket the squad could be a mistake waiting to happen.
Second Season syndrome : now if it's going to be arrogance, over-confidence or complacency, Mancini has a tough task at hand keeping the negativity at bay and motivating the squad.
No notable new additions : Reed B Markham said "If you are standing still, you are also going backwards. It takes great effort to maintain forward movement", ManCity won a league by a whisker, so waiting and watching while their title rivals have bought upto 4 players and their captain back from injury, is as good as going backwards (Though the window has not closed yet).
Moving on to ManUtd:
Why would they win it?
Sir Alex Ferguson : With his magical ability to create a whole that is always greater than the sum of it's parts, the resolve of this septuagenarian wizard is unmatchable.
New Signings : Shinji Kagawa, Nick Powell, deal being finalized as I write with Henriquez and the icing on the cake - Robin van Persie - need I say more? Last year the league was lost by 8 goals - I see more than 8 goals from this set.
Nemaja Vidic : the no nonsense defender/captain was missed last season with a long injury.
Last seasons disappointments : losing the league on goal difference in extra time last season, a 1-6 humiliation at the hands of their bitter rivals and noisy neighbors, premature UCL and Europa league exits, the only season in a long time without a trophy, etc... this seems to added more resolve into this squad.
Flexibility to play different formations : much has been said about the rigidity of formation esp when it came to the UCL, the current new additions give them more options to formations.
Why United may lose the plot?
Squad selection : they have 5 world-class strikers in Rooney, RVP, Chicharito, Welbeck and Berbatov(may leave though), with not enough game time, we may have disgruntled ones. It would take Fergie all his management skills to keep this squad happy.
Tactical inflexibility : playing the tried and tested 4-4-2 may not work at all times.
Coming to Chelsea :
Why they may win it:
I'm predicting a 3rd place finish but again, nobody predicted them to win the UCL - 2012 either.
In Chelsea's case their positives and negatives are the same, based on how the squad takes them.
UCL-2012 : This was considered their owners' holy grail, now having achieved that would this current squad want to achieve more, it seems like they have won it all or would it motivate them to further glory.
The Manager : his methods are known and seem to be acceptable(unlike his predecessor) to the squad. Can this motivate them or can this come across as his weakness and have senior players run the squad.
The owner : his willingness to spend to improve the squad and his overindulgence in day to day football affairs are 2 sides of the same Russian coin.
I don't see anybody outside these three having a realistic chance of winning the league but football is a crazy and I would make a few notable mentions and their positives/negatives.
Tottenham : I've had a liking to the AVB methods from his Porto days and would like to see him being a long term prospect at his new club.
Arsenal : After losing some of their best talent in succession, this squad can overperform if they hold their nerve. Moreover the arrivals of Podolski and Giroud should give them firepower upfront and can partly fill the void of their best player leaving.
Newcastle : last seasons' dark-horse, they have a well assembled team.
Liverpool : Had some bad PR with the whole Suarez episode. Expecting Rodgers to breathe in some fresh-air.
So I'd say
4) Arsenal
5) Tottenham
6) Newcastle
7)Liverpool or Everton
Finally if I was asked to say who would win it : Manchester United.
Reason : Whenever they have finished 2nd: 1995,1998, 2006 and 2010, they have gone on to win the league the following year : 1996, 1999, 2007 and 2011. The manager and his team look determined for the 20th.
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