FAs own financial fair play - how fair is it?

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Player salaries now add up to around 70% of club turnovers. With the success of ManCity and Chelsea this figure is sure set to rise and this alarming trend is not something that bodes well for the league. I have spoken in a previous blog about how this changes the landscape of the league(Link here).

Is the recent discussion on how salary caps and spending limits the beginning of the end of this cancerous practice?

The FA had met to discuss how a new regulation for financial controls wherein clubs would have to break-even every year or face sanctions. Not shockingly this move was sparked by Manchester United who seem have been awakened by some cold water thrown at them given the recent success of ManCity and Chelsea and with their own trophy cabinet not being disturbed last year. Support to this proposal comes from a very unlikely frontier in the form of Dave Whelan the chairman of Wigan who themselves had a £7.2 Million loss in the season ending May 2011.

With 2 strong advocates for these changes being Manchester United and Arsenal along with Wigan, West Ham and Stoke. The obvious naysayers include Chelsea and ManCity with support from Fulham, Everton, West Bromwich Albion, Newcastle and Tottenham. The argument that David Gill, CEO of ManUtd had for this was logical that the leagues that sandwich the premier league viz. the Championship and the Champions League are in the process of or have already implemented them. So according to Gill why not the Premier League.

This of course is not an easy task given that at least 14 teams have to agree to make any changes which is just above a 2/3rd majority and getting everyone to a common ground would seem a tough task given how success has been bought of-late.

If we a little look into this a little more in detail at this about how clubs fare if this rule were to be applied today then we have the table which is in this link. 
There is alarming 11 clubs which have have a wages to turnover ratio of 70% or more and with the top culprit being the obvious ManCity with 114% of their turnover going into wages. Surprisingly the other evil, Chelsea is 3rd at 86% with Aston Villa sandwiched between these 2 at 90%. These are 2011 figures and the number are sure going to be different for the 2011/12 season. Sitting safely at the top are Manchester United and Arsenal with 46% and 48% respectively. 

Coming back to regulations this would prevent clubs from biting off more than they can chew and also prevent owners from treating clubs as their plaything. Such regulations would also prevent another Portsmouth and Rangers debacle. And like David Gill has said with both the league above and below the EPL with such regulations it would not harm to gradually enforce them onto this league too. 

It is obvious that the big spenders would oppose such a proposal for their own success but if we are avoid a La-Liga like 2 horse race which is already seeming to form in the EPL too then these regulations seem necessary. I spoken about how this tiered structured seems to be coming into existence in the EPL too in previous 2 blogs 

1) Predictions for the EPL 2012/13( Link here).

2) What does the rise of Manchester City mean(Link here).

Predictions for the 2012-13 EPL

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Firstly I write this as a sequel to the blog - What does the rise of Manchester City mean?  Which gives a perspective on the EPL or football in general has changed with the rise of clubs like ManCity and Chelsea.

In that that blog I have spoken of a big 3 + 4 structure starting to emerge in English football.

So 1 2 and 3?

Spot 1 : Winner : This would be a tough fight between ManCity and ManUtd and there are multiple reasons either one could win.

Firstly let's see why last years winners ManCity could win it.

The squad : a sqaud that boasts of the likes of Aguero, Tevez, Balotelli, Kompany, Yaya Toure, Dzeko, Nasri, Silva, De Jong, Clichy, etc. will have the quality to win the league, moreover now they have the experience with one league in their kitty. 

The Manager : Roberto Mancini is one of the best in the business.

Why City may lose the plot :

Bloated egos : With volatile characters like Balotelli and Tevez and now with the ego of one League in their pocket the squad could be a mistake waiting to happen.

Second Season syndrome : now if it's going to be arrogance, over-confidence or complacency, Mancini has a tough task at hand keeping the negativity at bay and motivating the squad.

No notable new additions : Reed B Markham said "If you are standing still, you are also going backwards. It takes great effort to maintain forward movement", ManCity won a league by a whisker, so waiting and watching while their title rivals have bought upto 4 players and their captain back from injury, is as good as going backwards (Though the window has not closed yet). 

Moving on to ManUtd: 

Why would they win it?

Sir Alex Ferguson : With his magical ability to create a whole that is always greater than the sum of it's parts, the resolve of this septuagenarian wizard is unmatchable. 

New Signings : Shinji Kagawa, Nick Powell, deal being finalized as I write with Henriquez and the icing on the cake - Robin van Persie - need I say more? Last year the league was lost by 8 goals - I see more than 8 goals from this set.

Nemaja Vidic : the no nonsense defender/captain was missed last season with a long injury. 

Last seasons disappointments : losing the league on goal difference in extra time last season, a 1-6 humiliation at the hands of their bitter rivals and noisy neighbors, premature UCL and Europa league exits, the only season in a long time without a trophy, etc... this seems to added more resolve into this squad. 

Flexibility to play different formations : much has been said about the rigidity of formation esp when it came to the UCL, the current new additions give them more options to formations.

Why United may lose the plot? 

Squad selection : they have 5 world-class strikers in Rooney, RVP, Chicharito, Welbeck and Berbatov(may leave though), with not enough game time, we may have disgruntled ones. It would take Fergie all his management skills to keep this squad happy.

Tactical inflexibility : playing the tried and tested 4-4-2 may not work at all times. 

Coming to Chelsea : 

Why they may win it: 
I'm predicting a 3rd place finish but again, nobody predicted them to win the UCL - 2012 either. 

In Chelsea's case their positives and negatives are the same, based on how the squad takes them. 

UCL-2012 : This was considered their owners' holy grail, now having achieved that would this current squad want to achieve more, it seems like they have won it all or would it motivate them to further glory. 

The Manager : his methods are known and seem to be acceptable(unlike his predecessor) to the squad. Can this motivate them or can this come across as his weakness and have senior players run the squad. 

The owner : his willingness to spend to improve the squad and his overindulgence in day to day football affairs are 2 sides of the same Russian coin. 

 I don't see anybody outside these three having a realistic chance of winning the league but football is a crazy and I would make a few notable mentions and their positives/negatives. 

Tottenham : I've had a liking to the AVB methods from his Porto days and would like to see him being a long term prospect at his new club.

Arsenal : After losing some of their best talent in succession, this squad can overperform if they hold their nerve. Moreover the arrivals of Podolski and Giroud should give them firepower upfront and can partly fill the void of their best player leaving. 

Newcastle : last seasons' dark-horse, they have a well assembled team. 

Liverpool : Had some bad PR with the whole Suarez episode. Expecting Rodgers to breathe in some fresh-air.

So I'd say

4) Arsenal
5) Tottenham
6) Newcastle
7)Liverpool or Everton

Finally if I was asked to say who would win it : Manchester United. 

Reason : Whenever they have finished 2nd: 1995,1998, 2006 and 2010, they have gone on to win the league the following year : 1996, 1999, 2007 and 2011. The manager and his team look determined for the 20th.

What does the rise of Manchester City mean?

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Fresh from the Robin van Persie transfer saga....

Until 2004 the premier league title in it's current format had been in the hands of 3 teams - Manchester United(Man Utd), Arsenal and Blackburn Rovers. In walked Chelsea with a billionaire owner and a new manager. They went on to win the league in the 2004-05 season and then we had just 3 teams winning the league since viz. Manchester United, Chelsea and most recently Manchester City(Man City).

What has been the reason behind the dominance of certain teams and what drives success in the Premier League? Money though how it is got may differ. Arsenal and Manchester United have a good revenue stream and have exceptional managers. Chelsea and Man City have been bought by billionaire owners.

Before the rise of Manchester City there had been talk of a Big-4 in English football, which included Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool, who among them had won most of the major trophies and also would be difficult to guess where each of these would finish come the end of the football season. 

Now there is talk of a a big 3 + 4 where the first 3 include ManUtd, Man City and Chelsea and remaining 4 consisting of Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspurs, Liverpool and Newcastle. Such a tier is a reflection of the possible positions where the teams would finish.

Until a few years ago we did not have players moving much between top teams but over the last year and a half - we have seen 2 major moves between the aforementioned teams -  Fernando Torres from Liverpool to Chelsea and van Persie from Arsenal to Manchester United much to the anger of the fans of the teams that lost their star players.

What would such a pattern mean, it is indicative of the growing chasm between the 3 and 4 groups within the big 3 + 4. Is it a case of the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer? I would just stop short of saying exactly that but yes that's where things seem to be headed at this rate in the league.

Chelsea having been one of the dominating sides over the last decade and then winning the champions league in 2012 have shown that money can buy you success and more recently Man City with their bunch of own superstars proved that by snatching the league from the jaws of Man United.

Man City have made it tougher for the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool, Newcastle to think of winning a cup but the problem with such a business model that it has been proven to be a success.

So now we have billionaires looking to have a new plaything and in the long run also treat it like an investment would just look at leagues like they would at an online shopping store and buy the one that suits them the most. That in a way would mean the clubs that hit the lottery gain an undue advantage over the hard-workers. Even the likes of Everton, Fulham, etc. would feel robbed in a way. But one thing is that tomorrow we might have another billionaire buying another club and making it the next Man City or Chelsea or PSG.

We have the Financial Fair Play coming into effect sometime soon which may put the brakes on such intentions in the future but till then the edge these teams have are going to exist and once the FFP does get implemented  the momentum would get them going.